Blog · Mortgage market
Floating on paper, fixed in practice: why mortgage rates are falling in Bulgaria and rising in the euro area.
The textbook says a variable rate is cheap but risky — it can go up. The June 2026 data show something more interesting: the most expensive rates, and the ones still rising, are precisely the variable rates linked to Euribor. The most stable — and even falling — is also “variable”: the Bulgarian one. What matters is not whether a rate is fixed or variable, but what it is tied to.
Updated: 7 August 2026 · data for June 2026 · ECB, Bulgarian National Bank, national central banksMost expensive · Latvia
Variable, on 6-month Euribor — and it went up
Cheapest · Bulgaria
Also “variable” — but it went down
More expensive in Euribor markets
Baltics ~4.2% against 2.40%
Euribor-linked variable rates — up
All three Baltic states and Finland; Bulgaria — down
The starting point
One thing on paper, another in the market.
Yes, within a single offer a fixed rate carries a premium and is higher than a variable one — the bank wants to be paid for the risk it takes on. That is trivial and explains nothing.
The interesting part is between markets. As of June 2026, even the basic rule that “fixed costs more” is reversed: the most expensive rates in the whole EU are the variable ones in the Baltics (up to 4.36%), while France’s rate, fixed for the full term, is just 3.27%. As the ECB raised rates, every market tied to Euribor became more expensive — the risk of a “variable” rate materialised. Bulgaria, also with a “variable” rate, did the opposite.
So the label tells you nothing. What tells you something is what the rate is built on.
Ranking · June 2026
Who pays how much — and which way it is moving.
Sorted by average rate, highest first. “Change” is against the 2025 average. The “Based on” column shows what the rate is calculated from — and that, not the word “variable”, explains the direction.
| # | Country | June 2026 | Change | Payment / €100k | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latvia | 4.36% | +0.19 ▲ | €547.92 | Euribor 6m |
| 2 | Estonia | 4.22% | +0.33 ▲ | €540.06 | Euribor 6m |
| 3 | Lithuania | 4.05% | +0.28 ▲ | €530.60 | Euribor 6m |
| 4 | Germany | 3.95% | +0.28 ▲ | €525.08 | Fixed 10 yrs |
| 5 | Netherlands | 3.82% | +0.17 ▲ | €517.95 | Fixed 5–10 yrs |
| 6 | Slovakia | 3.79% | +0.09 ▲ | €516.31 | Fixed 1–5 yrs |
| 7 | Belgium | 3.63% | +0.33 ▲ | €507.62 | Fixed full term |
| 8 | Greece | 3.57% | −0.02 ▼ | €504.39 | Euribor / fixed |
| 9 | Luxembourg | 3.57% | +0.15 ▲ | €504.39 | Euribor / ref. |
| 10 | Austria | 3.56% | +0.17 ▲ | €503.85 | Euribor / fixed |
| 11 | Italy | 3.50% | +0.30 ▲ | €500.62 | Euribor / fixed |
| 12 | Ireland | 3.49% | −0.15 ▼ | €500.09 | Fixed 2–5 yrs |
| 13 | France | 3.27% | +0.13 ▲ | €488.37 | Fixed full term |
| 14 | Finland | 3.22% | +0.35 ▲ | €485.73 | Euribor 12m |
| 15 | Cyprus | 3.17% | −0.04 ▼ | €483.10 | Euribor / ECB |
| 16 | Bulgaria | 2.40% | −0.04 ▼ | €443.74 | Deposits / bank reference rate |
Average rate on genuinely new home loans. The payment is for €100,000 over 25 years on an annuity basis, excluding fees and insurance. Every market tied entirely to Euribor is up; only a few are down, Bulgaria among them.
One label, two different rates
Why “variable” means different things.
In the Baltics and in Bulgaria alike, the rate is formally variable. The difference lies in the reference index it is calculated from — and those indices come from two unrelated worlds.
| Indicator | Variable on Euribor | Variable in Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Based on | 6–12-month Euribor + margin | the cost of local deposits (≈ 0%) |
| Which cycle drives it | inflation in the large economies (ECB) | excess liquidity in the banking system |
| Level, June 2026 | 3.2 – 4.4% | 2.40% |
| Direction in 2026 | up (+0.19 … +0.35) | down (−0.04) |
| Actual behaviour | like a “risk” — it rises | like a fixed rate — stable, even falling |
Bulgaria
Why Bulgaria’s “variable” rate is steadier than a Western fixed one.
Bulgarian banks lend from cheap local deposits, not from the market. So even when a rate is written into the contract as “variable with Euribor as reference”, in practice it is often calculated from the bank’s own reference lending rate, which is built on the cost of deposits — close to zero, in a banking system with excess liquidity. The result: the rate does not rise when Euribor does, and at the moment it is even falling.
Hence the paradox in the table: Baltic borrowers on a “variable” rate linked to 6-month Euribor absorbed the full impact of the ECB’s rate rises, while a Bulgarian on a “variable” rate pays less, and more predictably, than a French borrower whose rate is fixed for the full term.
For the buyer
Look at what the rate is built on, not at the label.
- Ask what the rate is tied to. Euribor (which one — 3, 6 or 12 months) or the bank’s reference rate. That decides whether your payment follows the ECB or local deposits.
- If it is Euribor, watch what Euribor does. Over the last ECB cycle it doubled rates in a number of markets. “Variable on Euribor” means exposure to that cycle.
- If it is the bank’s reference rate, ask for the methodology. How it is set, when it is reviewed and what drives it. In Bulgaria it rests on deposits — which is why it has been stable.
- The margin is fixed; the index is not. The overall rate moves only with the index; check whether there is a floor.
- Compare the APRC, not the nominal rate. Fees and mandatory insurance are included in the annual percentage rate of charge — that is where the real cost lies.
- The average is not an offer to you. Depending on your income, the energy class and 80–85% financing, a deviation of 0.20–0.50 percentage points from the national average is normal.
Methodology
What is comparable, and what is not.
The series covers households, house purchase and genuinely new loans — renegotiations and refinancing are excluded. The 2025 average is the arithmetic mean of the 12 monthly national values. Bulgaria is calculated on the same basis from the Bulgarian National Bank’s tables: new business minus renegotiations and refinancing, with the rate weighted by volume. Values are rounded to two decimal places, so totals and differences may be off by 0.01 percentage points.
There is no single European database that equalises down payment, term, income, age, energy class and fees at the same time. The figures therefore compare market levels, not promised offers to the same borrower.
- ECB — harmonised series for genuinely new home loans.
- Bulgarian National Bank — full interest rate statistics tables; average rates, volumes and APRC (June 2026).
- National central banks on how rates are typically set: Bank of Finland, Eesti Pank, Bank of Lithuania, Deutsche Bundesbank, National Bank of Belgium, Central Bank of Ireland, Banque de France, Bank of Italy, Central Bank of Cyprus.
The data are for information only and do not constitute an offer or investment or legal advice. Rates and terms change and are set individually by each bank according to the borrower’s income, collateral and profile. Example payments are calculated on an annuity basis, excluding fees and insurance. Before deciding, check current figures with the bank and in the European Standardised Information Sheet.
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